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The hottest new asset class is democracy.

Alternative trading platform Robinhood announced Monday that users with a US passport can begin trading Kamala Harris or Donald Trump contracts eight days out from the 2024 presidential election. So-called event derivatives trading — which lets people buy and sell contracts that speculate on the outcome of things like elections — has become increasingly popular with retail investors and drawn a whole new slew of speculation into a tightly contested race.

Robinhood’s new offering will compete with financial exchange Kalshi and prediction markets PredictIt and Polymarket—the latter of which said last week that one French trader bet over $28 million on the Republican nominee. However, with polls deadlocked, any bet on the election is akin to putting down money on a coin toss — which, to be fair, is still better than betting on the New York Yankees at this point.

Industrials

Where is the Bottom for Boeing?

Photo of a Boeing Starliner mockup in the Space Vehicle Mockup Facility
Photo by Balon Greyjoy via CC0 1.0

Boeing is not-so-boldly departing the space business.

On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the mired-in-constant-disaster aerospace manufacturer is considering a sale of its space unit, among other assets. The news comes as the bottom line at Boeing grows more tenuous. And who knows? Maybe whoever buys the division will be able to bring back the astronauts that Boeing’s malfunctioning aircraft left (safely) stranded on the International Space Station.

The Final Frontier

Boeing hasn’t had a good week in quite some time. And yet, last week proved particularly bad. The company posted a staggering $6 billion loss in its third quarter (CEO Kelly Ortberg had already announced plans to lay off roughly 10% of employees). Within hours, Ortberg received more bad news. By late Wednesday evening, Boeing’s 33,000 striking machinists in the Pacific Northwest — who have maintained their work stoppage for six weeks so far — voted to reject the latest contract offer from the company, which included a 35% pay raise. The remaining sticking point for strikers: the return of an employee pension plan.

No workers means no new planes built, which means no new sales, which means gigantic losses could mount in Boeing’s last quarter of the year. It’s no wonder that the company is considering an asset sale to scare up some quick cash. But its space business resembles its plane business in one key respect — both are imperiled:

  • Boeing’s space unit is housed within its defense division, which posted a $3.1 billion loss on $18.5 billion of revenue through the first three quarters of the year.
  • The company’s already spent over a year seeking a buyer for the United Launch Alliance, the rocket launch venture it co-owns with Lockheed Martin, sources told the WSJ; a Jefferies analyst estimated it could be valued at up to $3 billion. Sources also told the WSJ that Boeing has held discussions with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin about possible asset sales.

Ortberg noted in a call with analysts in August that, aside from Boeing’s core commercial and defense businesses, any asset sale is on the table.

Spirited Away: The knockdown effects of Boeing’s tailspin continue to be felt. Key supplier Spirit AeroSystems has already furloughed some 700 employees in Wichita, Kansas. On Thursday, a spokesperson told CNBC that Spirit is now weighing furloughs, and possible layoffs, of hundreds more workers if Boeing can’t strike a deal with its machinists by Nov. 25.

Markets

The NYSE Wants to Go 22/5 on Its Arca Exchange

Wall Street has a lot of people born with silver spoons, but it may soon operate more like an all-night greasy spoon.

The NYSE said Friday that it plans to extend trading hours for equities on its electronic Arca exchange to 22 hours on weekdays, letting hungry retail and international investors buy and sell US-listed assets almost around the clock.

Trading After Bedtime

The NYSE hinted that a move like this was coming back in April, when its data analytics team started surveying market participants for their thoughts on a 24/7 bourse.

The rationale is pretty simple: There’s been a rise in retail investors who aren’t wedded to work shifts like professional traders, as well as demand for greater access to US equities by foreign traders who operate in different time zones. Plus, many major equities already trade nearly around the clock thanks to dual listings, while alternative platforms like Robinhood offer trading for a limited numbers of stocks and ETFs 24 hours a day, five days a week. Cryptocurrency markets, meanwhile, operate 24/7.

The Arca exchange is an ideal testing ground for the NYSE: It already opens earlier and closes later than the main NYSE, with sessions kicking off at 4 a.m. and lasting until 8 p.m. Eastern Time. The NYSE’s regular trading hours are from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET. The outcome, pending SEC approval, may be more moderate than earth-shattering:

  • While alternative platforms only offer a few dozen stocks for after-hours trading, Arca has more than 8,000 US-listed securities and a whole host of ETFs. Keeping its doors open until 11:30 p.m. ET and reopening at 1:30 a.m. ET on weekdays would undoubtedly open up tons of stocks to late-night traders.
  • However, trading volume is still very likely to be concentrated during normal business hours, when the titanic forces of institutional investors, who own roughly 80% of US equities, are in play. 

For Example: Bitcoin is a useful example of how mainstream adoption has boxed a one-time Wild West asset into normal trading hours: Analysts at crypto data firm Kaiko said in June that Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume had fallen to a record low 16% in 2024, a nosedive from its 28% peak in 2019. It noted the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs that are friendly to institutional investors.

Autos

Mercedes-Benz Profits Drop More than 50% in Third Quarter

When Janis Joplin sang her ode to Mercedes-Benz, the brand was the last word in automotive luxury. It’s fallen on harder times today. 

Mercedes-Benz is en route to cut costs after profits in the third quarter more than halved year-over-year due to weaker demand in China, where buyers turned to local makers like Geely and BYD. If the trade war between Europe and the Middle Kingdom continues to escalate, Mercedes won’t be the only carmaker with a concerning outlook.

Reining It In

In the third quarter, Mercedes reported €1.72 billion ($1.9 billion) in net profits, a 53% drop from €3.72 billion a year prior. Year-to-date, profits are down just over 31% compared to last year.

On a call with reporters, Mercedes CFO Harald Wilhelm said because of the less-than-stellar earnings, the company aims to reduce the cost of labor and materials that go into its cars and factories. “Is there any specific point to be made now in terms of headcount adjustment? No,” he said. Cost-cutting is old hat for Mercedes, though: Each division within the brand has been doing just that for the past five years. In fact, many European luxury brands are in cost-cutting mode because of Chinese competition:

  • Porsche said it would shrink its dealership network in China after the German carmaker reported a 41% drop in Q3 operating profit year-over-year. “China is an incredible challenge, not just for Porsche,” Chief Financial Officer Lutz Meschke told reporters. “In the future, we can no longer assume that China will return to where it was for European players.”
  • British manufacturer Aston Martin is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings this week, but has already signaled that profits will take a hit because of supply chain issues and weak demand in China. 

The Art of Trade War: The European Union recently announced that it will move ahead with tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese electric vehicles. Though promoted as a defensive measure, many carmakers oppose the tariffs, saying the levies will only increase competition for them in an already-challenging Chinese market. And to no one’s surprise, Beijing is exploring retaliatory tariffs on European gasoline cars with large engines.

Extra Upside

  • Communication Breakdown: Delta sues CrowdStrike after software disruption allegedly cost the airline more than $500 million.
  • You Deserve It: Microsoft CEO gets hefty pay raise while company cuts workforce by around 2,500 employees.

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