“I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career.”

Those are the words of an anonymous executive responding to the latest Dallas Fed quarterly energy survey of the oil and gas sector, released Wednesday. Needless to say, US energy executives have a lot on their plate at the moment, with tariffs, sanctions, war, and a “drill, baby, drill” agenda at home all exacting pressure in different directions on commodity prices.

Quarterly Confessional

The Dallas Fed survey is a closely observed indicator of drilling activity in America’s southwestern oil-producing heartland, most notably Texas. Executives are allowed to submit responses anonymously, meaning there’s often candid analysis you’d never hear on an earnings call. The overwhelming sentiment in the survey published Wednesday was oil executives’ uneasiness with uncertainty. One respondent called it “the keyword to describe 2025,” adding: “Our investors hate uncertainty.” Unfortunately, they may have to get used to it.

On the domestic front, producers were given a leg up in January when President Trump signed a series of executive orders to hasten permitting and loosen environmental regulations. On the other hand, the administration’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda has focused on driving down energy prices, which executives and analysts have warned could make new drilling unaffordable. Some White House officials have spoken of a $50 price target for crude, a level that Wood Mackenzie analysts warned “would result in immediate production declines.” One of the Dallas Fed respondents said their company has already slashed its capital expenditures in 2025 and 2026 because of “the threat of $50 oil prices by the administration.”

The forces pushing oil prices upward include the administration’s tariff policy, which one survey respondent blasted as “impossible for us to predict” and without “a clear goal”:

• On Tuesday, Trump threatened tariffs on countries that buy oil from OPEC member Venezuela. China, the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil, condemned the move, but some Chinese buyers reportedly paused future purchases — Reliance, India’s biggest privately owned refiner, also halted further purchases of Venezuelan crude, The Economic Times reported.
• At home, Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to push up the costs of metals essential to oilfield operations, potentially raising the bar on prices that firms must charge to make a profit on new drilling.

Set against all of this, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that US crude inventories fell by an unexpectedly large 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21. The drawdown suggests strong demand, something an International Energy Agency report hinted at last week: The IEA found global energy demand rose 2.2% last year, much faster than the average 1.3% increase between 2013 and 2023. Lower supply, not to mention a rush of former Venezuelan crude customers looking for a new place to buy, could exert upward pressure on prices — Brent crude futures cleared $74 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest in nearly four weeks.

A Sea Change: Then there are Russia and Ukraine, which the White House said Tuesday have agreed to a cease-fire on the Black Sea; they will also negotiate a pact to cease attacks on one another’s energy infrastructure. Moscow, however, has said it will only implement the agreement if sanctions are lifted. That could hypothetically lead to more supply to more markets, but it would take a significant diplomatic development.

Stablecoins are the Girl Scout cookies of the financial world, and everyone’s splurging for their own this spring. Just this week, Fidelity Investments said it’s testing a stablecoin, and the Trump-backed crypto project World Liberty Financial announced plans to launch one of its own.

Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged 1:1 to a specific asset like the US dollar, have spiked in popularity in recent years. They’re considered less volatile than other digital assets, which may be why major financial companies are clamoring to create their own as a first step into the cryptosphere.

Going Mainstream

The market cap of stablecoins hit a record $230 billion this month, according to DefiLllama data, as circulation grew. About $27.6 trillion worth of stablecoins were transferred last year — that’s more than the combined volume of Visa and Mastercard transactions.

Crypto companies dominate the stablecoin scene. Tether (aka USDT) has long been the largest stablecoin, and Circle’s USD Coin has been growing its market cap fast. However, new entrants from the traditional financial sector are hot on their heels:

• PayPal launched its own stablecoin in 2023, while Stripe started accepting payments using Circle’s stablecoin last month; Stripe also bought stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion.
• Standard Chartered Bank said last month it’ll create a stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar.

Even Bank of America said it plans to launch a stablecoin once US lawmakers greenlight the crypto asset — which they’re working on.

Two big bills are currently moving through the House and the Senate: The House unveiled a bill to regulate stablecoins yesterday. The Senate’s further along: Its parallel bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee and should soon head to the floor.

As POTUS pushes for the US to lead a crypto renaissance, legislation could help legitimize the industry — boosting the wider sector and the projects Trump’s personally tied to, like World Liberty Financial and its new stablecoin.

Proceed with Caution: Stablecoin advocates say the digital asset can strengthen the US dollar (many are pegged to USD), while helping the 1 billion unbanked people around the world access financial services. But critics think stablecoins have some of the same issues as all cryptos: They can facilitate crimes (like money laundering) and lack consumer protections. New regulations could change that.

The good times, they don’t last. But on Wednesday, we at least found out just how good the good times were.

According to data released from the New York comptroller, Wall Street bonuses surged over 31% in 2024 to an average payout of $244,700 — the highest-ever level going back to 1990. But as economic uncertainty sinks in, bankers are looking at a starkly different reality this year.

Bonus Points

In sum, Wall Street bankers earned an estimated $47.5 billion in bonuses last year, a record going back to at least 1987. It’s thanks largely to a rebound in dealmaking after an epic two-year hibernation, and widespread optimism for the future that fueled the white-hot equities market. That optimism only increased in the final months of the year, on hopes that the next administration would usher in a new dealmaking-friendly era. Each major bank saw a profit explosion in the fourth quarter, and hopes were so high that the KBW Banking index, which tracks leading banks and financial institutions, rose nearly 12% from the November election through Inauguration Day in the US.

“There are good times to be over-exposed to capital markets revenues, and this is one of them,” Stephen Biggar, banking analyst at Argus Research, told Reuters a few days ahead of the presidential swearing-in ceremony.

Today, however, may not be one of them. The S&P 500 has stumbled. This year has ushered in the slowest January and February for dealmaking since the financial crisis. The KBW Banking index has fallen over 8% since Inauguration Day. Goldman Sachs analysts recently lowered their growth target for completed deals this year from 25% to 7%. JPMorgan analysts have pegged the chances of a recession at 40%. All of which is why, three months after handing out hefty bonuses, Wall Street banks are printing out pink slips:

• While this time of year typically sees headcount reductions at major banks, analysts told Reuters on Wednesday that they fear banks could accelerate layoffs beyond normal levels if market conditions don’t rebound.
• According to Dealogic data seen by Reuters, global investment banking fees reached just $16.8 billion from January 1 to March 13, down from nearly $18 billion a year ago and way down from the nearly $20 billion mark reached in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Summer Daze: So when will Wall Street know if there’s a turnaround? “There’s an expectation that investment banking pickup is delayed, not dead,” Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo told Reuters. “But if we’re having this discussion in the middle of the summer, that could be a different story. If the revenues aren’t coming in, then employees bear the brunt.”