The hope was for the economy to come in for a soft landing, but now it feels like it just lost an engine.

Fears of a recession are on the rise after last week’s tariffs sent equity markets plummeting. Leaders from the industry’s largest wealth management firms are now saying a recession is fully on the table, with analysts from Goldman Sachs predicting a 45% chance of a recession occurring in the next 12 months. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders this week that “the menu of tariffs” may or may not cause a downturn, but there will be a slowdown in growth.

And, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is a little all over the place, claiming that he maintains strong support for President Trump’s policies, while also saying the tariffs could bring about a “self-induced, economic nuclear winter.” Though all three major indexes are still down year-to-date, they did see major bumps Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs. So, how are advisors taking it all in?

Don’t Hit the Panic Button

The problem is there are still plenty of unknowns for wealth managers to address. Even some of those who believe a recession is looming are uncertain about how soon it will come and how hard it will hit. S&P Global boosted its prediction for the likelihood of recession from 25% in March to between 30% and 35% now.

“What I can say confidently is that we will have a recession,” said Kyle Harper of Harper Financial Planning. “What I can’t say confidently is when or whether the tariffs will be the primary cause.”

Advisors’ jobs right now are to stay rosy and remind clients that their wealth plans were built with market downturns in mind. “We’re prepared to let the outside world be in chaos while feeling confident in our portfolios to perform how we expect through market cycles,” said Noah Damsky, a CFA at Marina Wealth Advisors, adding that he thinks the economy will weather the storm.

OK, Hit the Panic Button. Consumer confidence is … well, it’s been better. The indicator reached a 12-year low last month due to anxiety over tariffs and inflation, according to the Confidence Board research organization. The research found:

• The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ outlooks on current business conditions, dropped 3.6 points to 134.5 in March.
• The Expectations Index that takes in short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2.

Michael Hansen, co-founder of Frontier Wealth Strategies, started telling clients in mid-March they should expect a recession, and tweaked their portfolios accordingly. “I kept everything liquid, so if we do avoid a recession, we can be back in with a day’s notice,” he told Advisor Upside.

What’s in a name? A lot, according to the North American Securities Administrators Association.

The association of state regulatory bodies does not want broker-dealer agents calling themselves “advisors” and approved changes to address that this week in its model rule for securities regulators. Agents who use advisor, or adviser, in their title could mislead clients into thinking they are working with a registered investment advisor who acts as a fiduciary, said consumer advocates, who widely supported the changes. NASAA also updated its conduct standards to more closely match those in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Regulation Best Interest.

But brokers and industry groups said existing regulations already provide consumers with those protections.

Whose Best Interest?

NASAA’s members, who include state, provincial, and territorial securities administrators, voted in favor of the revisions to the five-page guide, which was originally approved in 1983 and amended in 2022. States can (and often do) use model rules as the basis for their own regulations. Groups including the CFP Board, Financial Planning Association, Consumer Federation of America, and XY Planning Network wrote comment letters in support of the changes after NASAA proposed them.

Sifma and LPL, among others, opposed some of the amendments, particularly those around the use of the advisor title.The new rule goes beyond Reg BI, which “permits associated persons of a broker-dealer who are supervised persons (i.e., employees) of an investment advisor to use the title,” Sifma wrote.

But the changes don’t go far enough, the CFP Board and others said. For example, dually registered reps shouldn’t be able to call themselves advisors unless they are wearing their registered investment advisor hat in a customer relationship, they said.

Level Out. The changes come as the Securities and Exchange Commission reviews whether to increase the asset threshold that determines whether investment advisors are overseen by states or by the SEC. In a speech this week before NASAA members, acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda noted that it had been 15 years since the Dodd-Frank Act raised the limit on mid-size investment advisors. The current rules allow:

• The SEC to generally oversee advisors with more than $100 million in AUM.
• States to regulate advisors with lower AUM levels.

Since Dodd-Frank was passed, the number of RIAs has increased by 45%, and the number with $100 million to $1 billion in AUM increased 53%.

Standard Issue. Fiduciary and consumer advocates have long been calling for clearer lines between broker-dealer reps and advisors who work exclusively as fiduciaries. With the NASAA changes, states may go further than the SEC does, if they adopt the amended rule, one advocate said.

“Kudos to NASAA for requiring a broker to be a registered adviser to use the adviser title. It’s a first step to clear messaging and ‘truth in advertising,’” said Knut Rostad, president of the Institute for the Fiduciary Standard. “Interestingly, while NASAA clarifies broker/adviser differences, the SEC in Form CRS minimizes them.”

It may sound like a cliched line from SportsCenter, but athletes are just built differently — especially when it comes to their finances.

Professional athletes earn their wealth very quickly and at young ages, and they sometimes spend it even faster. Their careers can also end before they know it. Nearly 80% of NFL players experience financial stress or even bankruptcy after retirement, 40% of UK professional footballers go bankrupt five years after retirement, and MLB players file for bankruptcy at four times the rate of non-athletes, according to a recent Wells Fargo report.

“With stats like that, professional athletes need to take their financial planning seriously,” said Frederick Blue, head of new business development at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management. Advisors need to be well aware of the complexities of athletes’ income streams, tax obligations, and personalized insurance strategies if they want their financial plans to succeed.

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