Just Who Exactly Are Bessent’s ‘Dirty 15’?

Liberation Day is finally upon us. As of Tuesday, we were still pretty fuzzy about the whole thing, but here’s what we know and don’t know.

The White House intends to use tariffs, effective immediately upon announcement at a 4 p.m. ET Rose Garden event today, to raise revenue and rearrange the global trading order. What we don’t know: Just how high the tariffs will be, and on which countries. What we do know: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has identified a list of countries — dubbed the “Dirty 15” percent of nations — deemed most worthy of tariffs. Which brings us to more of what we don’t know: Just which countries, exactly, are included in this 15. 

Thankfully, we have some clues.

Double Jeopardy

Besent said in a Fox News interview last month the list is composed of countries that are both major trading partners with the US and also maintain tariffs and other “non-tariff barriers” on US goods. In a later interview on the network, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said the administration is looking to target a list of 10 to 15 countries that account for the majority of the US’s $1 trillion trading deficit. In short: The Dirty 15 appear to be countries that commit the double whammy of exporting more goods to America than they import from America, all while maintaining tariffs on US goods. 

Meanwhile, the Office of the US Trade Representative recently issued a notice seeking public input in reviewing and identifying which countries are conducting “unfair trade practices” at the expense of US commerce, specifically singling out “G20 countries, as well as those economies that have the largest trade deficits in goods with the United States.” Which, all in all, means there’s a pretty clear picture of which countries the Trump administration has in its tariff crosshairs:

• According to Commerce Department data, the economies running the highest trade deficits with the US last year were: China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Switzerland, Malaysia, Cambodia, and South Africa.
• Meanwhile, the Trade Representative’s Office also singled out Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom in its notice.

In other words: The list of countries that could fit into the Dirty 15 definition is long — which may explain why the President has signalled he could start with blanket tariffs, potentially as high as 20%, on all imports. It’s important to note that economists still agree that running a trade deficit with another country is not inherently a bad thing. 

New World Order: Another thing we know for sure: The specter of tariffs is already upending the global trading order. On Monday, Bloomberg reported that trade chiefs for Japan, South Korea, and China have renewed discussions to strengthen their economic ties to combat the downstream effects of new US import taxes. While there is no deal yet, even talks of deepening relations shows how seriously both traditional American economic allies and adversaries are taking the tariff threats. We’ll have to wait til later today to see just what happens.